HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
"We only buy after the 3,600% move."

To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: September 14, 2026 at 07:01 PM EDT
Subject: The 10-Year Ate My Homework, and the Fed Is Still Talking

My fellow exit-liquidity providers,

The bond market is in open revolt, the Fed is about to speak, and WSB is doing the only thing it knows: arguing about AI safety while checking mortgage rates. The 10-year briefly tapped 5%, oil is doing war things, and the only reliable trade was the one nobody posted until it was up 3,600%. Let’s get regarded.

[10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD / FED / WARSH]: The 10-year Treasury briefly topped 5% for the first time since 2023 as oil jumped and the Fed meeting loomed, and WSB’s top comment was one long “how far can we kick this can” while the Warsh thread says the market is pricing an above-90% chance of a hike into Wednesday’s FOMC. The same thread notes the pattern: relief rally after the 2pm release, then a selloff during the press conference, with QQQ down 2.89% and 2.99% across the June and July meetings. Meanwhile, the Kenny G/Citadel fanfic expects a surprise hike, mass liquidation, then no hike, because Kenny G wins again.

[AI SAFETY / AI SLOWDOWN / OPENAI]: The “selloff makes zero sense” post got ratioed by the top comment simply saying “buddy the markets aren’t even open yet” while the rest of the thread debated whether AI safety is a real concern or a coordinated excuse to slow capex. One daily discussion theory claims OpenAI allegedly committed international hacking crimes and Anthropic still wants its IPO, while the selloff thread calls it a circular money grift losing steam. The actual trading plan from the AI slowdown thread is “buy the fucking dip”—and also, Dario Amodei was apparently an AI doomer all along if you rearrange his name.

[ANTHROPIC]: Anthropic told investors it will be profitable for a second straight quarter ahead of its blockbuster IPO, and the top comment ran the math: “50 billion revenue, 50 billion in expenses, 50$ in profit”. The fine print strips out stock-based compensation, revenue shared with Amazon, and model training costs, which is why the thread yelled “Show me the S1” and compared it to Enron. MarketWatch flagged a big caveat, and the sub is treating the whole thing as IPO theatre.

[OIL / BWET]: The Iran war oil shock turned a freight fund—$BWET per the thread—into the best trade nobody here made: up 3,600%, and the top comment is a funeral for everyone who heard about it after the move. Meanwhile, the $236K oil short YOLO betting on a Trump peace deal got ratioed into oblivion, with replies pointing to Houthi pipeline attacks and Trump’s mid-November timeline. CNBC finally covered the freight fund after the fact, which the sub reads as Wall Street looking for exit liquidity.

[SK HYNIX / SAMSUNG / MEMORY]: SK Hynix and Samsung rejected KEPCO’s upfront five-year power prepayment proposal, citing uncertainty over long-term semiconductor demand, and the sub immediately split between “memory peak” and “company talks out of both sides of their mouth”. A follow-up post insists the real issue is Korean domestic politics and talent logistics, because nobody wants to build a fab in the southwest and move engineers out of Seoul. The comments also warned cheap Chinese RAM and pandemic-surplus PTSD mean these chipmakers will manufacture scarcity rather than overbuild.

[MSFT]: A degenerate turned $9.6K of MSFT $505 0DTE calls bought at 0.17 into a $4.4K profit by selling at .25, then watched the same contracts hit $4 and represent $224K if held. The replies gave the only risk management WSB knows: “always sell half and let the rest ride” plus a new diagnosis called KOMO: knowledge of missing out. Retail saw the tech bloodbath and bought the dip anyway, which is either brave or just theta donating.

[LULU]: The LULU bull case is 500 shares at $100.64 and a deeply held belief in hot moms in stretch pants, even as the stock is down 52% YTD. The comments informed him that hot moms have moved on to Vuori, Alo, and Nike Pro, and that betting against LULU previously would have worked just fine. News reports had LULU falling to $100 and asking if it’s a bargain, which is the exact moment WSB usually discovers a falling knife.

[SNDK / MU]: One regard is short SNDK via SNDQ until it drops to $999, citing a memory cycle peak and AI slowdown rumors, while the replies explain he actually bought a decaying 2x inverse product and is already down 54% on a 25% SNDK drop. The counterargument is Micron earnings at the end of the month and insatiable memory demand from robots/AI, because every cycle bro has a story. The sub’s consensus is that shorting memory into MU earnings is just pre-ordering loss porn.

[VRT]: A true degenerate re-upped a $17K VRT YOLO with 40 Sept 18th $242.5 calls after losing 100% on the previous VRT YOLO, because abuse is love. The replies pointed out Vertiv cools AI data centers, but he’ll need industrial liquid cooling for his brokerage account if weeklies go sideways. He admits Iran war expansion, oil spiking, and nobody using AI productively are all reasons this could go wrong, which is maybe the most honest DD on the sub.

[EARNINGS WEEK]: The weekly earnings thread is so boring the top comments call it “an earnings period for ants” and “literally untradable”. The only useful data is options positioning: ORLY premium 20.5x baseline, CPRT 3.6x adjusted with highest z-score, ALLY 7.2x, SOLS call OI 3.1x, NKE call OI 252K vs 140K, and MSFT/ARM sitting on gamma flips. Half the thread is arguing about oil pipeline attacks and whether the Fed hikes into this mess, which is somehow more productive than the earnings calendar.

[QQQ / PUTS]: The put-buyers are taking a victory lap after last week’s selloff, with one poster turning $30K into $100K and another cashing a 100% QQQ put profit. The replies range from “take profit before it is too late” to “gayest post I’ve ever seen, calls on bankrupt by Friday”. One commenter notes every stock is green anyway, which is the WSB version of a market top.

So the house view is simple: the 10-year is at 5%, the crowd expects a hike, AI is either slowing for safety or for liquidity, and the only winning trade was a freight fund nobody mentioned until it was up 3,600%. We remain fully hedged in vibes and unhedged in mortgage-rate cope. If you need us, we’ll be in the daily thread losing 50k before open.

Stay solvent (somehow),

Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management