HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
"We only look smart because the tape was stupid yesterday."

To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: September 13, 2026 at 07:00 PM EDT
Subject: Yields Engorged, Pipelines Shut, and Leopold’s Margin Call Era

My fellow exit-liquidity providers,

The tape is a three-ring circus: rates are supposed to rip, oil is supposed to rip, AI is supposed to stay circular, and WSB is supposed to be early. Only one of those is priced in.

[THE ONLY WAY TO SAVE US TREASURIES / WARSH]: The sub’s biggest post is a 22k-upvote tribute to “the only way to save US treasuries,” where the top comment is simply “Yields are engorged.” Under that, the Warsh crowd wants him to “grow a sack and go full Volcker” with a 100bp hike next week, while FedWatch odds for two or more hikes by next July have gone from 53.5% to 97.4%. News reports put Fed hike odds near 90% into a super central bank week, but the comments still default to “calls anyways right?” because nuance is for bonds, not degenerates.

[NVDA/ANTHROPIC]: Nvidia is reportedly in talks to put up to $10B into Anthropic’s mega IPO, while Anthropic tells investors it will be profitable for a second straight quarter on adjusted operating income that strips out stock-based comp. WSB’s response is mostly “Show me the S1” and “It’s like Hot Potato,” with one commenter saying Nvidia needs Anthropic to keep the momentum going. Reuters and FT have the same story, so the only novel part is how many people will pretend they were early to the IPO.

[JPMORGAN CUT OFF SITUATIONAL AWARENESS LENDING / LEOPOLD]: JPMorgan cut off lending to Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness after AI losses, with one comment quoting the largest loss in the history of the hedge fund industry and WSB calling it “rookie mistake” for picking up the margin call. Leopold then bought options in semis and memory last week, prompting the sub to ask “how many times do they have to teach this young man the same lesson?” and to declare him “One of Us.” Reuters reports the lending relationship is over; the only remaining question is whether the next headline liquidates him on his birthday.

[SAUDI ARABIA SHUTS DOWN EAST-WEST CRUDE OIL PIPELINE / BWET]: Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline after attacks, and the top comment on WSB’s 6.3k-upvote thread is “Market doesn’t even care. Just use AI instead of oil bro.” Another reader points out 7 million barrels/day went offline while algos decided “oil down 3%” and calls buying a “no-brainer,” which is exactly what someone says before discovering the freight fund. The freight fund is BWET, up 3,600% on the Iran war oil shock, now being discovered only after it ran; CNBC says oil prices rose after the pipeline shutdown.

[OIL SHORT YOLO]: A user posted a $236K oil short with 2x leveraged oil short shares, betting on an imminent Trump peace deal and thanking the “poor boys” later. The replies included “This is the clearest sign the universe has given me to go long on oil” and reminders that Trump said the war would not end before mid-November, while one commenter claimed the Houthis just hit the East-West pipeline and took over Mokha port. Nothing says peace deal like a thread full of people posting loss porn before the deal exists.

[EVERYONE LOVES A GREAT SEQUEL]: The 4.8k-upvote “Everyone Loves A Great Sequel” post has the sub casting The Big Short 2 as “Too Big To Short” and imagining Sydney Sweeney explaining circular financing in a bathtub. One commenter’s AI monitors another AI, asks what tokens are, and immediately concludes “It’s a bubble! Sell everything,” which is more diligence than most earnings threads get.

[NBIS/CRWV]: One hero turned 80k into 463k in eight months via NBIS and CRWV puts, then announced a break because the trades are giving him a heart attack. A commenter points out it was really “20k to 463k in a month” after being down the previous seven months, while another grants him “one single scoop ice cream cone.”

[IWM/QQQ 0DTE]: Another account went 10k to 70k mostly scalping IWM/QQQ 0DTE and 1DTE puts/calls, with next stop allegedly a milly. The replies are pure WSB risk management: “99/100 people went to 0 trying this revenge trade” and a warning that the “$69k -> $10k -> $73k” path is coming back around.

[LULU/BURRY]: The “Leopold of Yoga Pants” is down big on LULU, with one commenter confessing he bought at 140 because of Burry, then remembered Burry was a regard and sold at 145. Another is “down 300k on LULU so I win,” while the thread’s brand analysis is that Lulu collapses as Victoria rises on Ozempic.

[AFTER KOREANS PILED INTO US STOCKS]: Korean retail investors piled into US stocks and are now suffering as the won strengthens, prompting the sub’s top comment: “So to them Won is the loneliest number?.” One commenter notes $1.4B is a rounding error for S&P flows, while another American in Korea says holding USD has lost him roughly 10% of purchasing power.

[TLY/TURKISH FUND]: Turkey’s TLY fund returned 4,200% in 2025 and 230% YTD in 2026, which WSB correctly identifies as either a Sharpe-2.2 miracle or a circular low-float pump. Commenters say it’s a Ponzi, that you can’t short it, and that the Tera/Pusula ecosystem just had a chairman flee abroad, so the only real trade is staying away.

[ORLY/CPRT/ALLY/SOLS/NKE/MSFT/ARM]: The weekly earnings thread is “an earnings period for ants,” “extremely boring,” and “literally untradable,” which is WSB for “we will still gamble on it.” Options data flags ORLY, CPRT, ALLY, SOLS, NKE, MSFT, and ARM as names with unusual positioning: ORLY premium at $746k against a $36k baseline, CPRT at $701k against $74k, and MSFT sitting almost exactly on its gamma flip at 495.

The throughline: rates may break something, oil may break something else, and AI may break Leopold again, but WSB will keep buying calls because the alternative is index funds and self-reflection. We remain positioned for the only certainty: someone will post their loss porn after the close.

Stay solvent, or at least stay loud,

Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management