HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
"We confuse hindsight with alpha."
To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: September 15, 2026 at 07:01 PM EDT
Subject: Fed Hike Eve, CLARITY Autopsy, and Anthropic’s 100% Gross Margin
My fellow exit-liquidity providers,
Tomorrow’s Fed decision is the only thing the tape can see, which is cute because the 10-year already hit 5% and CLARITY just died in the Senate. Everyone is pretending to have a plan; most of you just have 0DTE and a prayer. Let’s sort the wreckage.
[WARSH EFFECT]: The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5% as traders braced for Kevin Warsh’s Fed, and the Warsh Effect post claims the pattern has been a relief rally after the announcement followed by a selloff during his press conferences. News reports expect the Fed to raise its benchmark rate and defy Trump’s demands. The crowd’s base case is a relief rally into the release and a face-ripping selloff during the presser, because nothing says “data dependent” like a live Q&A.
[CLARITY/COIN]: The Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act failed 49–50, short of the 60 needed, effectively blocking further consideration, and external coverage called it a regulatory blow to crypto. Coinbase slid as CLARITY odds crashed and Cathie Wood dumped crypto stock, while one Redditor’s COIN calls got clawed back. The top comment summary was two GOP defectors and “this bill is dead forever”, because decentralized finance still needs Senate permission.
[ANTHROPIC/AI DOOMER]: Anthropic’s definition of profit got shredded by a 2,050-point comment noting that before taking into account all expenses, gross margin is 100%, while another compared the vibe to WeWork all over again. The same sub upvoted the discovery that DARIO AMODEI contains AI DOOMER, which is either proof of divine comedy or a sign to buy more calls. If accounting is vibes and safety is marketing, the only real product is your premium.
[NVDA]: One degenerate put his entire port into a $28k NVDA YOLO with 3 DTE, way OOTM, right before the Fed decision. One commenter told him he was cooked; OP replied he only needs one pop before Friday and doesn’t need NVDA above $220. Option desks traded 1.71 million NVDA contracts on September 15, per Moomoo.
[AAPL]: The sub asked if Apple is the AI hedge, and the best answer was a comment calling it the default “safety” move while warning it’s consumer discretionary and vulnerable if people feel poorer. Another admitted selling Apple at $305 because it lagged the AI names, which is the official WSB version of regret. News reports say Apple has emerged as a megacap hedge against the AI spending binge, so naturally this will be wrong until it isn’t.
[DELL]: DELL hit a new high and a self-described piggy bought puts, because every new high apparently deserves a wave of selling pressure. One commenter’s Dell monitor delivery shifted from the 9th to the 13th to the 15th to the 16th, which they took as a bearish catalyst. Dell stock spiked after earnings, but the sub is now treating shipping delays as fundamental analysis.
[RKLB/MU]: A holder watched RKLB drop to $63 and still refused to trim, sitting on about $63,000 of profit after not selling at $110, while also confessing to buying MU at 99 and selling for a loss. Diamond hands, paper hands, and a screenshot that expired before the post did. The comments mostly asked why a 6x is being framed as a loss.
[1.1M TO 150K]: The day’s biggest score was a portfolio collapse from $1.1M to $150k after using margin last year or October. Top comments were mostly memes, plus one honest “1 million dollars bro?” because even this sub occasionally remembers what normal money looks like. If you can lose $950k and still post, you’re not an investor; you’re a content farm.
[KENNY G/CITADEL]: The highest-scoring conspiracy of the day alleges Citadel said the Fed would do a surprise 1% hike, people got liquidated, Citadel bought everything, and then no rate hikes happened — Kenny G wins again. It’s not evidence, it’s fan fiction, but the score says the audience wants to believe. Old money really hates new money remains the only reliable trade.
[SPX OPTIONS/SCHWAB]: Schwab filled 10 SPX 7690 puts at $75 while SPX traded between 7595 and 7605, about $10 below intrinsic, and the OP asked if a $10k slippage counted as sufficient losses. A top comment explained the bid/ask you see is just the top of the order book and a 10-lot can fill one at $88 and nine at $5, which is the expensive version of reading the tape. The School of Regard remains tuition-based.
[LULU]: The bull case is 500 shares at 100.64 and a deep respect for hot moms in stretch pants, which is a strategy no CFA would sign but the sub understands. The top comment noted “don’t ever bet against” is wild for a stock down 52% YTD. Even the hot-girl rotation is to Vuori and Alo, so the market is apparently a fashion cycle with margin calls.
[OIL]: Oil is down on “news of fucking nothing”, and Cramer has gone from “oil goes down, rates go lower, market goes higher” to “panic sell everything”. It is apparently stored in the balls, per one poster. One commenter turned gay bear after John Thune signaled a potential diesel export ban, while mortgage rates at 7% and a 5% 10-year are the real macro, not your crude chart.
Tomorrow the Fed speaks, crypto nurses its Senate bruise, and Anthropic will find another expense to exclude. We remain net short dignity and long fees. If you’re still here, at least size down before the press conference.
Stay solvent, or at least stay screenshotable,
Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management