HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
"We only buy tops after they've been confirmed by a 400-comment thread."
To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: September 12, 2026 at 07:01 PM EDT
Subject: The Bond Market Ate the Fed and Oil Is Now the AI Trade
My fellow exit-liquidity providers,
The market spent the week pretending a Saudi pipeline fire is bullish for AI and a hot CPI is bullish for bonds. Your job is to find the exit before the next guy, so here is where WSB is collectively wrong with maximum confidence.
[US TREASURIES/US10Y]: The "only way to save US treasuries" meme pulled 21,260 upvotes and a top "Yields are engorged" comment at 5,085, because nothing says fiscal responsibility like a cartoon about the bond market. Meanwhile, FT reports Bessent failed to break the bond market's "fever" and Fortune noted the $32 trillion market didn't listen to "I am the house now." The crowd's trade is less a thesis than a hostage situation with a yield curve.
[USO/OIL]: Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline after attacks, with CNBC reporting the drone-from-Iraq angle, while the top WSB comment on the 5,962-upvote thread was "Market doesn't even care. Just use AI instead of oil bro." The oil-superglut thread—1,238 upvotes—declared "Exxon stock to $200, WTI to $150/bbl" while diesel comments spiraled toward $7, $8, $9. If this is a superglut, someone forgot to tell the Houthis and the 7 million barrels per day the subreddit says went offline.
[CPI/FEDWATCH]: The August core CPI print came in at +0.3% m/m versus +0.2% expected, and a low-score FedWatch post put odds of two or more hikes by next July at 97.4%. CBS News says a September hike is all but guaranteed after the report, which is exactly the sort of certainty WSB usually reserves for 0DTE puts. The daily thread's reaction was part "priced in," part "calls, always calls," which is not a macro framework but is at least consistent.
[NVDA/ANTHROPIC]: Nvidia is reportedly in talks to invest up to $10 billion in Anthropic’s mega IPO, with one top comment offering "It’s like Hot Potato." Reuters reports the talks, while the subreddit sees a kingmaker keeping the choo-choo going in circles. If frontier AI is now a circular financing arrangement with a Reuters exclusive, at least the exit liquidity is well-branded.
[JPMORGAN/SITUATIONAL AWARENESS]: JPMorgan reportedly cut off lending to Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness after massive AI losses; the top comment quipped, "Dude picked up when he got the margin call, rookie mistake." Another reply says "Leopold: regard die twice," while FT and Reuters report the lending pullback and WSB frames it as "some regard on WSB getting institutional money to trade." The only surprising part is that the margin call didn't come with a Robinhood push notification.
[NBIS/CRWV]: A user turned 80k into 463k in eight months on NBIS and CRWV puts, then said he needs a break; the top comment was a 775-upvote "Me, meanwhile." One reply claims the real run was more like 20k to 463k in a month after seven down months, which is the most honest performance attribution on this subreddit. The trades are already realized, so the only remaining risk is the OP discovering leverage again.
[LULU]: "I am the Leopold of Yoga Pants" drew 588 upvotes, with one commenter admitting "I'm down 300k on LULU so I win." Another says they bought at 140 because of Burry and sold at 145: "thank the lord," which is the closest thing to due diligence in the thread. The brand debate is whether LULU is a dead brand or deep value; the P&L says it's a support group with a ticker.
[TLY/PHE]: A Turkish fund TLY reportedly returned +4,200% in 2025 and +230% in 2026 YTD, prompting a 242-upvote thread asking how to short it. Commenters call it circular, a Ponzi, and impossible to short, with one noting Pusula's PHE fund lost about 80% after new regulations. The real trade is apparently Turkish lira devaluation, high local rates, and a regulator who keeps a blind eye.
[SPY]: The 9/11 SPY seasonality post pulled 878 upvotes before Friday, with the top comment promising "Red Friday" for no reason other than "fuck you." Another asked whether Hormuz was closed in those years, which is a fair point when the current tape has an actual pipeline war. The sub's own daily thread was already asking why anything was green, which is the usual post-hoc substitute for a catalyst.
[IWM/QQQ]: A scalper turned 10k into 70k on IWM/QQQ 0DTE and 1DTE puts/calls, while top comments warned that 99/100 people go to zero doing this. One reply notes the equity curve actually went $69k to $10k to $73k, which is less a strategy than a cardiac stress test. The app-restart advice from a separate refund thread applies here too.
[ORCL]: Oracle calls at the 270 strike are getting roasted in a 100-upvote post, with the OP admitting "you're only as good as your last trade" and commenters piling on that it had no chance. One bear says Oracle will be the first to die once OpenAI self-destructs; another offers the timeless risk management of "double down." The only thing more expired than those calls is the AI circlejerk's sense of shame.
So there you have it: bonds are hosting a fever dream, oil is in a superglut with no oil, and every AI IPO is a circle jerk with a term sheet. We remain committed to being the last ones holding the bag, provided the bag is at least up 400% on paper.
Stay solvent (somehow),
Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management