HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
"We Only See the Alpha After the Margin Call."
To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: September 11, 2026 at 07:01 PM EDT
Subject: The Bond Market Is the House, and You’re the Regard
My fellow duration bagholders,
The tape is green-ish, the bond market is screaming, and CPI just came in hot enough to make a Fed hike look like the base case. Oil is on fire, AI leverage is getting its prime brokerage privileges revoked, and the sub is still trying to scalp 0DTE through it all. Let’s audit the degeneracy.
[US10Y/TREASURIES]: The board’s biggest post is a 16,464-upvote meme titled “The only way to save US treasuries,” with the top comment declaring yields “engorged.” The separate bond-market freakout thread has WSB asking what on God’s earth is happening, while the FT reports Bessent failed to break the bond market’s “fever.” The NYT says the bond market rebuffed Treasury’s $6B plan to reduce borrowing costs, which is the house edge in its purest form.
[OIL/SAUDI PIPELINE/USO]: The Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown has the board split between apocalypse and “AI will fix it,” while the weekend thread’s USO watcher clocked -$6 on peace rumors and +$1.50 on attack headlines. The top comment (1,992) says “Market doesn’t even care. Just use AI instead of oil bro.” and the oil superglut post is back with WTI to $150 and Exxon to $200. The CNBC report says it was shut after drone attacks from Iraq, so naturally the sub is treating it as both Armageddon and a buying opportunity.
[CPI/PPI/FED]: Core CPI rose 0.3% M/M versus +0.2% expected, and the WSB thread was instantly “Priced in” and “Calls, always calls.” PPI rose 0.4% and commenters noted 2s, 5s, 10s, and 30s yields hit 52-week highs all at once, because nothing says “transitory” like a full curve tantrum. External coverage from Bloomberg and CNBC frames it as bolstering the case for a rate hike, which is the Fed’s way of saying “fuck your calls.”
[SITUATIONAL AWARENESS/AI]: JPMorgan reportedly cut off lending to Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness after historic AI losses, and the top comment (389) says he “picked up when he got the margin call, rookie mistake.” One commenter diagnosed the whole genre as survivorship bias plus high risk tolerance, which is just WSB with a prime brokerage account. Reuters and FT confirm the lending pullback, because nothing says “situational awareness” like learning about margin after the liquidation.
[ORCL]: Oracle is the AI hangover in miniature: one commenter is “down so fucking bad on oracle,” another says “emotionally everyone hates oracle,” and the 270 strike is getting dunked on. The post is just a graveyard of calls that needed a miracle and got a normal Thursday. If Situational Awareness was the institutional margin call, Oracle is the retail appendix.
[THIRD ACCT BLOWUP / CAN I GET A REFUND / 10K->70K]: The board’s loss porn is a full marathon: account blowup No. 3 after 30k, 100k, and 14k; a refund request on a covered-call account that only goes down; and a 10k->70k IWM/QQQ 0DTE/1DTE scalper being told to GTFO while he can. The empathy is elite: “Try restarting your app.” The only thing missing is a fourth account and a Costco receipt.
[ORLY/CPRT/ALLY/SOLS/NKE/MSFT/ARM]: The weekly earnings thread is so boring the top comments call it “untradable” and an “earnings period for ants.” The one options data dump flags ORLY at 20.5x raw premium, CPRT z=19.5, ALLY 7.2x adjusted, SOLS call OI 3.1x, NKE heavy call OI, and MSFT/ARM sitting on gamma flips. That’s not a catalyst; that’s a fire drill in an empty building.
[SPY/SPX/0DTE]: The 0DTE crowd is not okay: one account is down after 200 SPX contracts, and the 9/11 SPY history thread turned into “Red Friday” fan fiction. The daily thread says a position open longer than five minutes is scary; the rest of us call that a holding period. Puts, calls, same sewer.
[AAPL]: One regard made 58k on an AAPL call and called it a birthday gift from the casino, which is the only cheerful P&L on the board. The thread credits a post-iPhone pump, and external coverage of the iPhone Duo launch has BofA resetting its Apple target. Enjoy it before the next 0DTE expires.
[WOOF]: The WOOF thesis is a debt-soaked post-SPAC pet-store lottery ticket at $2.40–$2.50, which the author admits should be sized like a lottery ticket, not a retirement account. The top comment cuts through it: “Too long, bought a dog.” Petco has 1,380 stores and a dog carbonara recipe; commenters have doubts, and one says go to Costco instead.
[CASY/BMNR]: One regard YOLO’d 60 CASY 9/18 $620 calls because gas-station hotdogs and beer, then admitted a BMNR fumble in the same breath. The comments corrected him that Casey’s sells pizza, and that CASY was at 854 around 20 days ago. The hotdog thesis is already cooked.
The through-line is simple: bonds are repricing, oil is back, AI leverage is getting margin-called, and retail is still trying to refund the casino. We remain underweight hope and overweight whatever the sub is about to learn the hard way. Stay solvent, or at least stay entertained.
Stay solvent (somehow),
Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management