HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
"We Buy High and Never Sell"
To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: August 16, 2026 at 07:00 PM EDT
Subject: You Only Lose If You Sell, But You Will Anyway
My fellow exit-liquidity providers,
The bears are bleeding, the bag-holders are singing, and the only thing more resilient than the market is the "not selling" cope. Cboe is about to let you go bankrupt at 3am, so let's get into the sentiment.
YOU ONLY LOSE IF YOU SELL: With a 10,000-vote video titled "You Only lose if you sell," the sub has upgraded bag-holding to a religion, complete with -115% returns and "Never gonna sell my stocks." The sequel features a guy who lost $1M, doubled back to $500k on PLTR/SMCI, then YOLO'd $340k into options; the top review is "Well done! Almost made it to zero, keep going!." For the freshly laid-off regard opening futures for the first time, the verdict is "You belong here."
ANTHROPIC IPO: The sub is already fretting over a gigantic $2T IPO after Reuters reported that the valuation hinges on $190-200 billion of 2028 revenue that is mostly a promise and a prayer. The highest-IQ defense so far is "Why have revenue when you can have pre-revenue," while the 14-fold revenue surge just prompts the obvious "how much spend" from the comments. One user's personal valuation also hinges on $200B by 2028, currently being stress-tested behind a Wendy's.
NVDA / OPENAI: The WSJ report that Nvidia is scaling back its funding guarantee for the Ohio OpenAI data center has the thread going with "Goodbye Sunday futures" and "Bubble crackling." One voice notes the funding will just shift to Texas, because of course it will. A commenter adds that OpenAI's CRO resigned right after a leak pegged ARR at $40B, which sounds like suspicious math even by WSB standards.
KLAR / SEZL: KLAR earnings this week has one regard in 1,000 "forever calls" on the theory that ATHs are built on poors doing Chipotle installments and iPhone leases. The SEZL ~35% post-beat drop is the counter-argument, though the top analytical response is simply "Calls or puts?." One optimist hopes KLAR tanks so he can load up on a beat, the "Klarna glitch" crowd remains undefeated, and external headlines stay mixed: a fresh device-upgrade leasing deal versus a Q4 loss that retail shrugged off.
MSTR / BTC: One chart regard expects MSTR at $40ish in 8-12 weeks because Bitcoin is keeling over and Strategy changes strategy like changes underwear; positions are none, but MSTZ starts next week. The rebuttal is "200 next week confirmed," plus a prior bear who rode puts all the way from 196 down to 90. Even Saylor's "never sell" era is supposedly ending, with MSTR sliding as Bitcoin slumps and everyone staring at Treasury losses.
MASTERCARD / VISA / SOFI: After a global Mastercard outage, the market call is "Believe it or not Calls," with "visa 4 life" as the alt and crypto shills screaming "BE YOUR OWN BANK." One user's card getting declined at the shop is treated as DD; another's dinner reservation for his wife and her boyfriend survived another day. SOFI is down to 16 again because why not, which is the closest thing to a thesis.
C: The Citigroup DD is exactly as advertised: consolidated since 2009, just broke out, next resistance $549.40, and "who knows 🤷♂️." The top response orders a Baconator and Chocolate Frosty, while a true believer says Citi is going to $75,000. Another skeptic notes it's up nearly 400% since mid-2023, so "consolidating" is doing a lot of work.
SPACEX: Another lockup is incoming, and the sub's reaction is split between "overvalued AF, just like Tesla" and "so calls?." One commenter reminds everyone that Reddit predicting exit liquidity has been comically wrong before. Forbes says nearly a billion shares haven't arrived yet, so the reckoning might just have a waitlist.
CRUDE / USO: The oil thesis: flydubai feels safe flying over Iran, therefore a deal is done, therefore short crude. The top response is "China is buying oil again. USO calls." A voice of reason points out Brent was only $6 cheaper at this time in 2024 and $20 cheaper last year, so maybe skip the energy play, but "THE FUTES WILL OPEN" remains the only reliable forecast.
BEARS / QQQ SPY: The bear support group is hemorrhaging: one guy lost $178k YTD on Aug QQQ 500 puts and SPY 600 puts because "this doesn't make any sense," and the top reply is "But you made back $146 today so you're good." Meanwhile the crash-post crowd keeps asking where the crash is and getting told "the famous one month and a half investment horizon." One commenter predicts that the moment he quits being bearish, the market will tank 5-10%, per prophecy.
WEEKLY EARNINGS / WMT-TGT-HD-BABA-BJ: The weekly earnings thread is a real fucking snoozer, though one brave soul notes Walmart matters because it reflects the economy; the rest are firing off "HD - down, KLAR - puts, LOW - puts, TGT - flat, BABA - puts, WMT - calls" from "autism and vibes." Someone asks if Walmart has a 2x leveraged ETF, which is the only intelligent question. "Calls on BJs" is both a trade and a lifestyle.
CBOE / EXPANDED HOURS: Cboe starts expanded trading hours for select equity options Monday, so now you can "go bankrupt at 3am" instead of waiting for the opening bell. The sub's only improvement is "just make it all 24/7 already." Wall Street keeps inventing new ways to separate you from your sleep and your premium.
So the playbook is simple: hold the bags, buy the pre-revenue IPO, and never sell until the margin call sells for you. If you need our risk model, it's in the meme folder, right next to the Baconator receipts.
Stay solvent (somehow),
Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management