HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Hindsight: the only asset class that's always up.
To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: August 22, 2026 at 07:01 PM EDT
Subject: Daily Degeneracy Report: The Kangaroo Market Hops Straight Into NVDA Earnings
My fellow exit-liquidity providers,
The tape is a kangaroo, the weekend was full of 1DTE dreams, and the only thing the market loves more than a catalyst is watching someone buy the catalyst wrong. Here's what the sub thinks you should lose money on next week.
NVDA/MRVL: Jensen puts on the leather jacket, drops astronomically good numbers and great forward guidance, and NVDA still ends the week 5-8% lower — at least according to the one guy in the weekly earnings thread who has seen this movie before. The rest of the sub is treating it like the Super Bowl again, because every earnings season needs a free-money put thesis and a 0.4% post-earnings move to humble it. MRVL reports the same week with an 11.29% implied move, which is the financial equivalent of opening for the headliner.
CRM: Salesforce's AI adventure is the rare narrative where everyone is right: partners reportedly aren't seeing meaningful revenue from Agentforce, with one insider calling it account teams moving money around enterprise license agreements. The other side says Agentforce has already topped $1 billion and Salesforce is rallying into earnings. WSB's synthesis: AI is unprofitable dogshit, the software is clunky 90s garbage, and the only people making money are selling the chips.
WMT: Walmart's stock slid 9% after its outlook disappointed, and the sub's top take is that Wendy's has disrupted the entire retail model by offering both free food and a living wage behind the dumpster. The recession-hedge thesis is getting tested hard when customers are making trade-offs amid high fuel costs, and 3% margins don't leave room for unlocked socks. Some regard is calling it the clearest clue of the incoming crash, which is how you know the dip is healthy.
BRK: Warren Buffett is stuck in the retirement home watching Greg Abel take the $400B cash pile and finally buy something, because you have to buy something even if it means single-handedly funding the next market meme. The pile is already down to $365.5B — Motley Fool clocked Abel as a net buyer for the first time in three years — and no, the Google stake wasn't all his idea; the top comment insists a large portion was his idea. A commenter's worry that they didn't put it all on WMT is the closest WSB has come to due diligence all week.
META: Zuckerberg is a failure, a genius-level worst capital allocator, and a permanent tax on FCF — says the long, adding that his 700 shares need a $1,000 price target to survive the irony. Another regard cut his year-out calls before META went to $553 out of spite, then vowed to switch to shares and covered calls, which is basically an AA meeting at a casino. The charts are supposedly ominous and the trial is a trillion-dollar risk, but WSB's bottom signal is already flashing.
MRNA: Moderna's generational YOLO lord is out with $2.4M in profit from 16k shares bought at $27.50, and he still insists the stock is going to $300 because curing cancer once just means patients live long enough to catch another cancer — which is either a thesis or a supervillain origin story. Meanwhile, the guy who bought puts after the stock nearly tripled on the cancer-vaccine news is asking for hope, and the sub is openly rooting for stage 3 trials to fail. The NYT confirms the near-tripling was real, but the stock is already pulling back, so the only guaranteed winner is the IV.
HOOD: Turning $3K into $27K on a 1DTE and then apologizing for tiny balls and early profit-taking is the most WSB flex since the last time someone posted a screenshot of a seed. The top-voted response was simply this should have happened to me, which is the entire alpha model of this sub distilled into one sentence. Yahoo wants to know why HOOD popped, and the closest thing to an answer is "nothing has really changed", which is exactly when the real move happens.
USO: The oil thesis is that Hormuz is closed, the SPR is down to 293.4M barrels, and the futures curve is starting to price in persistence rather than resolution — a very binary trade, per the DD. External headlines have US-Israel strikes on Iran sending futures lower and short sellers circling USO, so the only consensus is that oil is going to do something, probably violently. One commenter's response, "oil shock cannot be avoided", is both a prediction and a prayer.
IREN: One regard liquidated his Uber calls and random 2028 leaps to put $15K of margin into Jan 2027 IREN calls because Microsoft accepted Horizon 1, NVIDIA certified the Childress campus, and the stock jumped 6% then sold off anyway. He says the Yahoo article also details more than a quarter of the float still short, and the implied-move list says 14.23% for earnings week — which is just the market asking who's the exit liquidity. He's lost more than $40K in options over two years, so of course this is the time to get leveraged.
KANGAROO MARKET: The sub has officially named the tape a kangaroo market, because boing boing boing and because the only consistent animal behavior is market manipulation. The bond market has crashed things at least three times, so watch it closely, and no, it is not a camel toe market. This environment rewards doing research after you buy and staying blessedly ignorant of options.
SPY: A madman put $26K into 1DTE SPY calls on Friday, buying the weekend's worth of hope only to watch theta eat him alive before Monday even opens. A put buyer in the daily thread escaped with $3 profit per contract on the Friday dump and now gets to watch those same options "double on Monday morning", which is the WSB version of a Zen koan. SPY's reduced-volatility periods at price levels are fascinating and completely useless, as one commenter's chart nerdery concluded: "premiums are cheap in the grinds and the grinds end abruptly".
Overall: buy the rumor, sell the news, and if you're still holding through a weekend, at least make sure your thesis is based on something as solid as a future cancer patient's second cancer. We at Hindsight Capital have reviewed the above and will be fading every single bit of it, because that's how we got the name.
Stay solvent (somehow),
Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management