HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
"Always right, tragically late."
To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: August 21, 2026 at 07:00 PM EDT
Subject: Kangaroos, Cancer Cures, and Other Ways to Lose Money
My fellow exit-liquidity providers,
Market mood is a kangaroo that snorted a line of 0DTE. Every bounce claims to be the start of a new bull run; every landing is a bagholder's butt hitting the pavement.
KANGAROO MARKET: The sub's 3,307-upvote attempt to add the "camel market" to the bestiary got rebranded to the kangaroo market, complete with "boing boing boing hippity hoppity". Top comment's more accurate animal is the manipulated market, which at least explains why your calls and puts both died. Crab market, cause only sideways was the runner-up, but we already have enough sideways to feed a beach.
NVDA/MRVL: The earnings week thread is basically a support group: if you play NVDA earnings you must love losing money, and MRVL lands in the same week, which one user greeted with a reverent holy. The accepted model is that Nvidia can beat every number and still end 5-8% down, which is the closest this sub gets to a scientific law. One regard still wants to buy puts before earnings but worries it's "too obvious," which is adorable.
WMT: External reality check: Walmart dropped 9% despite a guidance raise. The sub's top response is that Wendy's has completely disrupted Walmart, which is the only bull case we understand. Meanwhile, the "3% profit margin" crowd and the "actually Aldi is cheaper" crowd are having a beautiful moment.
META: The bull case, in one title: Zuckerberg is a failure and the poster is long 700 shares with a $1,000 target, because nothing says "worst capital allocator in history" like "diamond hands." One top comment says all he has to do is stop capex and the stock hits $900 in a week, but he won't, because Zuck's real project is making WSB's calls expire worthless. Another paperhand waited for the "kangaroo cycle," sold out, and one commenter clocked Meta at $553 to spite him, which is about as bullish as this sub gets.
SK HYNIX: External reality check: SK Hynix surged 12% after announcing a $28.6B buyback, though one user summed up the accounting as a $25B NYSE offering followed by a $25B Korean buyback — aka paying Koreans with extra steps. Another thread flagged the "further dilution" of bonuses paid 60% in stock, and the sub's verdict was calls. Meanwhile, Samsung plans up to $80B in shareholder returns, so every memory chip is just a lottery ticket with a logo.
CRM: The Register reports partners aren't seeing meaningful revenue from Agentforce while the pre-earnings headlines say Agentforce topped $1B, so pick your reality. A commenter who's apparently lived inside this ecosystem calls the AI data story a pile of trash, and another says the "bookings" are just account teams moving money around enterprise license agreements because they're incentivized to. The most sophisticated take remains: Calls.
MRNA/MRK: The generational YOLO update is 16k Moderna shares from $27.50, $2.4M cashed out, and a thesis that cancer patients will eventually get a second, different cancer so the drug can out-earn Keytruda. The sub's response is mostly thanks, dad and you're responsible for my 200% gain. Meanwhile, another regard bought puts on a cancer-cure headline and got told the smart play was puts on the meme stock, calls on Merck, because toll booths beat miracles.
HOOD/CRCL: Bitcoin's surge dragged Robinhood along for the ride, giving one degenerate an 800% gain and a deep regret that his balls are tiny. The sub's mantra is good enough to screenshot, good enough to sell, which is the closest thing to risk management here. Another trader made $24K on CRCL calls off Bitcoin's move and humbly asked if that was the right move, which is like asking if winning the lottery is a good strategy.
IREN: The latest anti-copium thesis is $15K of Jan 2027 calls on margin because Microsoft accepted Horizon 1, Nvidia blessed the campus, and more than a quarter of the float is short. The stock jumped 6% and then sold off, which the OP reads as bullish because that's exactly what NOW, BE, and HOOD did before ripping. The thread's response is a coffin meme and one honest warning that IREN is not even close to NBIS, unless we're comparing dilutions.
SOUN: A $49K SOUN loss is not a loss if you double down after earnings, and the top commenter compared the position to holding hands with an ex who drained your bank account. A product user says SOUN is actively being replaced at his work, so the "growth" thesis is essentially "beat revenue and vibes." SoundHound did post record revenue and narrower losses, but that's how they get you.
APP: The "over 800k" AppLovin position turns out to be mostly theta bucks, and the crowd immediately asked is the 800k in the room with us. Cash-covered puts plus shares is a real strategy, but Piper Sandler is cutting price targets on growth concerns, so the timing is, as always, immaculate. The only confirmed 800k is in the title.
RDDT: The gayest position of the week is shares, because I'm gay, with one degenerate buying 500 at $146.20 and telling the world to just hold. Another user is holding 150c expiring 9/18 and praying for similar profits, which is the financial equivalent of confessing a crush. The only bear note is a lone what's this value investing crap, so clearly the ceiling is gone.
The synthesis is simple: everyone is one headline away from conviction and one candle away from Wendy's. Hindsight Capital will continue to monetize your conviction at exactly the wrong time, and our risk committee has approved full deployment into "vibes." May your max pain be gentle and your screenshots be green.
Stay solvent (somehow),
Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management