HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
"We saw the dip coming. We bought it anyway."
To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: July 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM EDT
Subject: CAPEX is a four-letter word, and we're all spelling it wrong
My fellow exit-liquidity providers,
The market mood this weekend is best described as a group of people who just realized the casino has a cover charge and the buffet is closed. Portfolios are down, hope is down, and the only thing up is the number of people asking if "Sleepy Joe" was actually the market's best friend. Let's get to the pain.
[MSFT/META/AAPL]: The pinned earnings thread is a chorus of degens agreeing that Microsoft and Meta will "beat on everything" but raise capex and immediately dump the stock. One user summed it up: "CapEx week. You're fucked if you raised it. You're fucked if you don't." Meanwhile, external news confirms Big Tech capex is swelling to $725B, and the sub's PTSD is now a certified medical condition.
[QCOM]: Qualcomm’s AI robot presentation was not the flex they thought it was. The bot seized up on stage, got covered with a blanket like a crime scene, and the crowd went full "calls on fentanyl OD." External news shows Wetour Robotics just joined Qualcomm’s partner network — so the robot’s collapse was actually priced in and also bullish.
[STRAIT OF HORMUZ / SPY]: Technical analysis of the Strait of Hormuz has arrived, complete with trend lines and a chart that asks what Iran's positions on SPY are. External news has Houthis targeting Saudi oil facilities and crude spiking, so if you weren't already long VIX and short your own retirement, you're doing it wrong.
[ORCL]: Oracle signed a 10-year, $7 billion Pentagon software contract and the stock immediately reversed lower. The sub calls it "cronyism at its finest" and notes that Oracle is just another geriatric company getting government bailouts. One commenter dryly observed: "That should help with that $42B free cash flow deficit. Just needs another 5 of these."
[SSNLF/AVGO/SK HYNIX]: Samsung and Broadcom signed a $200 billion five-year chip deal, and SK Hynix locked down a $500 billion memory supply pact with Nvidia. The sub’s reaction is uniform: "Bullish! -15% when the Koreans learn of this." External news confirms these are the biggest AI hardware deals ever, which means they are now guaranteed to gap down 10% on Monday.
[GOOGL]: Someone dropped a 319k YOLO on 1,000 shares at $319, hoping for $399. The sub roasted him for buying shares instead of 0DTE calls, but at least he’s not holding Lemonade and Coupang. External news shows Google already fell 7% post-earnings on capex growth and AI leadership doubts, so that $319 entry is now a proud member of the bagholder club.
[BRK.B]: Berkshire's $400 billion cash pile is the sub’s favorite dry-powder fantasy. The top comment: "They're going to clean up if there's a downturn." But the market refuses to crash, so Buffett is just T-bill-and-chilling while we all 0DTE ourselves into the poorhouse.
[LMND/CPNG]: The debt-management-to-wealth-management post is this week's cautionary fairy tale: a guy turned $15k into $1.5M in 2 months, then parked the rest in Lemonade and Coupang. The sub’s reaction: "Fucking lemonade and coupang? Holy shit." He's also reportedly getting treatment for gambling addiction, but "see you Monday."
[FART STRATEGY]: The Frequency AI Ratio Tracker (FART) is the new premier quant model. It measures how many times a company says "AI" on its homepage — AMD leads with a "critical-level" 6.85% score. The creator has now reversed the strategy because the AI bubble is peaking. This is the most rigorous analysis this sub has produced since the crayon-on-napkin VWAP lines.
[NUCLEAR ENERGY / OKLO]: The White House is hosting nuclear CEOs to mark advanced reactor milestones, and the sub expects every nuclear stock to drop another 12% on the news. One commenter asked if OKLO will "finally go turn green for the first time since IPO." The answer, as always, is no.
So to recap: we’re heading into the most stacked earnings week of the year with a collective portfolio that looks like a deflated bouncy castle. The only thing consistent is the sub’s ability to turn good news into a -10% bloodbath. But hey, at least one guy made $1.5M and put it in Lemonade. That’s the kind of hopium we mainline.
Stay solvent (somehow),
Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management