HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
"We Bought the Top So You Don't Have To"

To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: July 24, 2026 at 07:00 PM EDT
Subject: CapEx Season: Where Beats Go to Die

My fellow exit-liquidity providers,

The sub has collectively decided that earnings are a participation trophy you get for losing money, and this week's lineup—Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood, Reddit, Moderna, Apple, PayPal "all within 3 days"—has everyone polishing their puts. One user perfectly summarized the vibe: "Stellar report? Dump that shit. Bad report? Also dump it," while another noted the real terror is MSFT beating on everything only to get hammered for not spending enough on data centers. Welcome to the only event in finance where raising CapEx gets you killed and not raising CapEx gets you killed faster.

[INTC]: Intel blew past estimates with its fastest sales growth in nearly 15 years, but the stock still fell nearly 8% because apparently record AI demand is now a sell signal. One user pointed out that if you bought INTC a month ago you're still down 18% to current after-hours pricing—the chip equivalent of ordering a pizza and watching the delivery driver eat half of it. source

[MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN/ORCL]: The hyperscaler debate peaked with one post asking whether all Mag 7 CEOs are wrong about CapEx or you're just reading too much Michael Burry Twitter. Meanwhile, a user built the Frequency AI Ratio Tracker (FART), which flags AMD's homepage as extreme risk and admits he's now reversing the trade. External news confirms AI spending is increasingly built on debt, but Lisa Su insists "we're seeing the returns."

[TSLA]: The Elon pump-and-dump cycle has claimed another victim holding 7,300 shares, praying for a rocket that's stuck in pre-launch. A cash-secured put trader lost $72,000 while someone else made 140% overnight on puts, confirming that Tesla is just a wealth transfer mechanism between regards who can't agree on which direction is down.

[OKLO/UUUU]: The White House is hosting nuclear energy CEOs for a microreactor milestone event, but the sub's reaction is basically "thank fuck, hopefully my nuclear stocks go from -30% to 0%." One user noted that nuclear stocks are "slowly creeping towards 52 week lows," proving that government backflips are not the same as market pump signals. source

[BRK]: With $400 billion in cash, Berkshire is apparently on the "T-bill and Chill program," waiting to extract pound of flesh from desperate companies. One user speculated they'll buy AI companies during the next crash and "bring back Buffett and Munger as AI," which is simultaneously the most bullish and terrifying take I've seen.

[SPY/0DTE]: A user built a Claude bot that learned VWAP today and promptly bought puts that hit $1.15; the top comment recommended against trading 0DTE if you're just learning VWAP. Another scalper is making a few hundred a day and wondering if he's regarded enough, while the sub reminds him that picking up pennies in front of a steamroller ends in loss porn.

The market mood is best summarized by someone who "went from planning out my life as a financially independent stock investor to planning out my trip to get special milk and cigarettes." Between the CapEx bloodbath, Intel's beat-and-dump, and nuclear stocks that somehow rally on good news by going down, the only consistent strategy appears to be the FART index, which is now in reverse.

Stay solvent (somehow),

Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management