HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
“Hindsight is 20/20, but our risk model is legally blind.”
To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: July 12, 2026 at 07:00 PM EDT
Subject: Strait Up, or Strait Down? Nobody Knows, So Calls It Is.
My fellow exit-liquidity providers,
The subreddit collective unconscious spent the weekend doing two things: staring at a map of the Strait of Hormuz and pretending lock-up schedules don't apply to them. Portfolio confidence is inversely correlated with account balance, and by every possible metric, we are extraordinarily confident.
[STRAIT OF HORMUZ]: Iran’s IRGC Navy announced the Strait is closed until further notice, which the subreddit has processed with the emotional maturity of a child learning a goldfish died — one post got 5,842 upvotes, and the top comment is just hoping Axios drops a “peace-deal_v12finalfinal.docx” before Monday’s open. The overwhelming consensus is that since war is now “certain,” we will rip to all-time highs, because stonks only know one direction.
[SPCX]: The first major post-IPO unlock is 142% of the entire IPO float — 911.5 million shares hitting the market after Q2 results — and one user who blew up their portfolio on SPCX calls and puts is now praying for 20x on next week’s puts to get “gucci.” News reports are calling this “the biggest selloff in IPO history,” while a detailed DD argues the battle for $150 is still alive, with cost to borrow doubling since last week.
[AAPL/OPENAI]: Apple filed a lawsuit accusing OpenAI of coordinating a company-wide trade secret heist, from coaching departing employees on evading security to allegedly stealing a laptop — and one top comment notes that “OpenAI’s entire business model is copyright infringement” so this is just a feature, not a bug. The alliance that was supposed to bring ChatGPT to iPhones has now devolved into a legal bloodbath that some users think could “kick-start the actual AI bubble burst.”
[SOFI]: A user dropped $1.3 million in a TFSA on SOFI calls ahead of July 29 earnings, arguing the Fed won’t hike before midterms and the jobs market is held together by government glue and healthcare tape, which is the exact kind of conviction that has historically preceded either life-changing wealth or a very educational loss porn post. News reports are asking whether a $25,000 investment can make you a millionaire — the subreddit’s answer is “just use margin.”
[NFLX/MSFT]: A 21-year-old who turned META profits into $450K is now long NFLX and MSFT calls, inspired by an LSD trip in Thailand where the emotion of fear apparently ceased to exist, which is honestly a more rigorous thesis than most of our backtests. News reports suggest Netflix’s $300 billion comeback is turning skeptics into believers, though another user entered a $26K NFLX call position five minutes before Friday’s close and called it “textbook high-risk, high-reward.”
[MU]: Multiple users are praying for Micron to recover, with one commenter bagholding September calls while watching a rival play SNDK for the real money. The memory trade is currently in the “pain phase” of the WSB cycle, which means it’s either a generational bottom or about to get much, much worse.
[BANK EARNINGS]: A Yahoo Finance article about big bank profit engines roaring into earnings got 384 upvotes, with the subreddit’s analysis being a gif of someone shoveling money and the observation that “Main Street keeps spending” is just a polite way of saying “credit card debt at 25% APR.” The bear case is that everything amazing is already priced in; the bull case is a screenshot of a smiling cat.
[CPI/HOT MACRO]: A user wrote a novel about June CPI possibly coming in hotter than expected because World Cup travel and beef prices are adding up, and the top reply is a copypasta about how the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe. News reports suggest don’t let a negative headline fool you, but the subreddit has already decided CPI will be fine because gas came down and the market ran on Thursday and Friday.
[BOJ/YEN CARRY TRADE]: A former BOJ official suggested rates could go beyond 2%, which the subreddit greeted with the same enthusiasm as a dental appointment, with one user simply saying “RIP Monday.” The yen carry trade unwind is the background music playing ominously while everyone pretends the Strait of Hormuz is the only thing that matters.
[DENIAL THEME]: One user posted a 1,346-upvote warning about debt, sticky inflation, crumbling private credit, and major IPOs draining liquidity — and then immediately said “calls first thing Monday morning,” which was the only part the subreddit heard. Another user lost their girlfriend but still has gains, which this subreddit considers a net positive.
Stay solvent (somehow),
Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management