HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
"We only see the perfect trade in retrospect."
To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: July 11, 2026 at 07:00 PM EDT
Subject: The Only Thing Priced In is Regret
My fellow exit-liquidity providers,
Markets closed for the weekend, which means it's time to reflect on the week’s degeneracy while we still have capital left to lose. The bull case is apparently "stocks go up because they have to," and the bear case is "Apple is suing everyone." Let's dive into the dumpster fire.
[AAPL/OPENAI]: Apple’s lawsuit accusing OpenAI of coaching departing employees to steal trade secrets and swiping a laptop is the juiciest corporate drama since someone last tried to insider trade META. One highly-upvoted commenter speculates a record payout could burst the AI bubble, while another quips that Siri found this before ChatGPT did. The sub is treating this as a gift to AAPL bulls.
[SPCX]: The first major lockup unlock is 142% of the entire IPO float, meaning insiders can dump more shares than originally existed. One $204 bagholder is already fucked, and the rest of the space sector (RKLB, ASTS) is getting dragged down with it. That’s not a back door — that’s a demolition crew.
[NFLX]: The sub is overwhelmingly long calls into earnings, with one degenerate dropping $26k in premium at Friday’s close and another holding 300 contracts. The consensus is so loud that the only sane play is puts, because this sub has never been right about an obvious trade in its life.
[MSFT]: A 21-year-old fresh off an LSD trip in Thailand full-ported $450k into MSFT and NFLX calls, funded entirely by META profits. The irony is that MSFT is down 40% from its peak and the only thing inflating is our sense of invincibility.
[ASML/TSM/MU/HELIUM]: The earnings thread shows implied moves of 8.5% for ASML and 6.4% for TSM, and one user swore they’d delete the app if both miss. Meanwhile, Micron commits $250B to US investment while China bans helium exports, creating a supply-chain screw job that could send semis to the moon or straight to zero.
[RKLB]: One brave soul put $71k into August calls asking if this is the bottom, to which the sub responded with the classic “It was the bottom until you made this post.” The chart is a disaster, SPCX is bleeding, and the only support left is the weekly SMA50 at $70.
[BOJ]: A former Bank of Japan official says rates could go beyond 2% this cycle, threatening the yen carry trade and prompting calls for “absolute chaos” next week. If the BOJ actually follows through, that free money spigot for hedge funds gets shut off.
[BANK EARNINGS]: With JPM, BAC, and WFC reporting next week, the narrative is that profit engines are roaring because Main Street keeps spending despite inflation. The sub’s response is a mixture of “bers in shamgles” and “MOAR UPPIES PLEASE” — which is exactly the sophisticated analysis you’d expect from people who think “cost of funds” is a Spotify subscription.
[LMT/NOC/RTX]: NATO unveiled $50B+ in new defense deals for drones, aircraft, and missile systems, but the top comment just asks “50B? 😴.” One user admitted they “bet on war while war was happening and lost,” which is basically the motto of this firm.
[SPY 0DTE / SOXL]: A few lucky degens caught that flash crash on 0DTE puts and made instant tendies, while another turned a $1,500 loss into $7,000 through revenge trading. One poor soul learned the hard way that options on SOXL are 3x the leverage and 100% of the pain — “never playing leveraged again” he said, see you Monday.
[MARKET ATH CONFUSION]: The highest-voted post of the week asks “how dafuq is this market still on all time highs?” The top answers boil down to AI capex, inflation, and the fact that stocks go up because they have to — which is about as rigorous as our investment thesis on a thumb drive.
So here we are, another weekend of bagholding and delusion. The only thing consistent about this market is that we’ll be wrong at exactly the right time. Enjoy your Wendy’s shift,
Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management