HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
"We only compound on the way down."

To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: September 19, 2026 at 07:01 PM EDT
Subject: VIBEITDA, Buffett's Empty Chair, and the 10Y's Revenge

My fellow exit-liquidity providers,

The weekend thread is 6,939 comments of liquidated, cat-diagnosed cope, the 10-year is at 5%, and the only thing bid is Anthropic's imagination. Let's get into the hallucinated numbers.

[ANTHROPIC/VIBEITDA]: The VIBEITDA post at 5,890 points gave us the "AI Slop Multiple" and "ex-Theranos" jokes, because apparently profit margins are just a vibe now. The sub is also passing around the claim that Anthropic expects $100 billion in 2026 revenue, though one comment notes that's annualized and actual H1 gross revenue was $16.3 billion. Meanwhile, the IPO has reportedly slipped to November and the company is considering a model release ahead of it, which is exactly what you'd do if the numbers were as real as the vibe.

[ANTHROPIC/ACCENTURE]: The Anthropic-Accenture post on the $2 billion AI model evaluation tie-up spawned the top comment that choosing Accenture to slow down a project is "the irony". Another regard asked if Accenture will just use the money to buy Claude tokens and ask it to evaluate itself. The Reddit post frames it as safety concerns rising, which is adorable given the market's safety concern is missing the next pump.

[BERKSHIRE]: The Berkshire chairman post drew 6,608 upvotes and a top comment that you only need to live almost 100 years for compounding to work. The sub's main takeaway is that Father Time remains undefeated, while external coverage notes Howard Buffett gets the chair and quotes "Father Time always wins." Everyone is pretending this isn't a generational sell signal wrapped in a press release.

[SAUDI ARAMCO/OIL]: The Saudi Aramco post says crude supply to European customers is reportedly halted after pipeline attacks, with production down about 1.9 million bpd to 6.24 million bpd, its lowest since 1990. The top comments are dunking on anyone who shorted oil because there's "no magical surprise supply"; one commenter adds Reuters says Aramco is working to partially restart and has boosted Hormuz exports. Bloomberg reports the Saudis told European refiners they'll get no crude next month, which is bullish for anyone who owns a drill and bearish for anyone who owns a gas stove.

[NIKE/ONON]: The Mbappe-to-On post had the sub yelling "The General strikes again" and warning nobody to look at ONON's YTD performance. One comment says Nike might actually be cooked, and another comment says bankruptcy soon, which is exactly the kind of measured analysis we pay for. The real DD is that Nike's bad news streak continues and On just signed a star in his prime.

[AMD]: The covered call massacre where a regard sold AMD calls at 19 cents and covered at $9.61 for a -4,957.90% loss is the purest WSB content of the week. The top comment calls it "literally the most regarded thing I've ever seen," which is high praise in this economy. The lesson is either don't sell covered calls on a meme chip stock or don't get married to the shares, but definitely don't do both.

[PALANTIR/TESLA]: A forgotten $8,000 Palantir position from five years ago turned into $83,000, while $12,000 in Tesla from 2021 is only up a few hundred dollars post. The top comment thanks OP for reminding him he sold Palantir for a teeny profit, which is the WSB equivalent of a support group. The wife's account did the one thing degenerates can't: nothing.

[ORACLE]: The Oracle debt post says the $18 billion data center debt is under pressure, and the top comment suggests they can just lay off more people to fix the balance sheet. The thread splits between "first to drop" doom and bailout fantasies, with one regard noting the stock is up 30% against his short. External coverage notes local pushback, while Reuters says the debt is under pressure; the real pressure is on anyone who shorted a company with a government-adjacent moat.

[10Y/TLT]: The 10Y yield post says "technical astrology," and the top comment warns that if bond yields moon, tech call options go to zero. External coverage says the 10-year yield has hit 5%, its highest since 2007, which makes the "stocks only go up" thesis feel like a prayer. One regard suggests TLT puts but notes high IV might still screw you, which is the most honest options advice on the sub.

[WSB VS TRADITIONAL TRADER]: The pro-vs-regard meme drew 1,436 upvotes, with the top comment noting the pro gets paid to lose other people's money while WSB pays to lose their own. Meanwhile the 69k->10k->204k post shows the degen version in action: all 0DTE/1DTE IWM/QQQ/SPY, with "Seek help" as top comment. A second comment notes the pro has a steady income and VOO, which is the least funny part.

[RDDT]: The Reddit Q3 earnings DD claims ad revenue and user growth could push revenue past $1 billion, citing Q2 ad revenue up 64% YoY to $762M and Reddit Max opening to all advertisers. The comments are convinced good news means red, with predictions like "So -7.3%, got it" and "crush earnings but the stock will drop 10%." Trefis is meanwhile asking what happens if search keeps sending fewer people, which is the bear case hiding in plain sight.

[MU]: The weekend thread has MU call trauma, and the earnings thread says, "Let's skip to 9/30 and big dog MU." The labor agreement post says Micron and the Taiwan union will meet again October 22, with the union still threatening a strike vote if no concrete response on profit-sharing. External coverage says the strike threat still looms, which is the only thing that can make holding MU calls through the weekend feel even worse.

The only thing more overvalued than Anthropic's vibe is our ability to keep showing up. Somewhere between Buffett's chair and Oracle's debt, the market is pricing a future where everyone is employed by an AI that can't count. Stay solvent, or at least stay in the group chat.

Stay solvent (somehow),

Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management