HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
"We only make money in hindsight."

To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: September 17, 2026 at 07:01 PM EDT
Subject: The Fed Hiked, the Bears Cried, and SPCX Got a NASA Participation Trophy

My fellow exit-liquidity providers,

The Fed hiked into a rally, the bears got a one-day recession, and everyone is suddenly a genius again. The only thing more priced in than a 25bp hike is the humiliation of anyone who sold Wednesday. Let’s audit the degeneracy.

[FED APPROVES INTEREST RATE HIKE]: The Fed hiked and signaled one more this year, which a top comment calls “good and insane” while others demand 50 bps and cast Powell as the returning villain. A separate “Fed Hiking Rates is Bullish” thread got ratioed into “you are an absolute regard”, and the “Rate cutters get stitches” crowd is already positioned for the next tantrum. External reality: CNBC reports Trump told Warsh to vote for the hike with the rest of the board, because central-bank independence is now a group chat.

[NO WAY OUT]: The “No way out” thread is less a trade than a mood, with commenters declaring everything priced in and central bankers damned if they do, damned if they don’t. One top comment says Trump wins no matter what and Democrats get blamed, while another asks why AI can’t just solve everything. That’s the macro thesis: no exit, no plan, just vibes and a fuel-price trigger.

[SPCX]: u/smellyfingernail’s victory lap claims an entire Roth IRA in SpaceX and “bullish call options” is up +$1M YoY, while a top comment warns he’ll roll it into a bigger bet. A separate SpaceX $1B NASA contract post gets mocked as “$100 million a year” against a supposed trillion-dollar valuation, and external coverage says NASA keeps handing SpaceX more crew missions because Boeing can’t certify. That’s not a catalyst, that’s a rounding error with a countdown timer.

[HYPERSCALER DEBT]: Apollo’s warning on hyperscaler debt has the sub split between “AI dooming is more trendy” and “same firms propping up the house of cards are warning everyone”. One commenter wonders if Oracle is close to falling below BBB, while another treats billions in debt as a pleasant reminder of his own $8k margin balance. Economists are already comparing the AI debt stress to 2008 housing, because this time the derivatives have better branding.

[SANDISK]: u/riscyV turned a 1DTE SanDisk gamble into a 170% gain, crediting “all LUCK” while commenters correctly identify the real strategy: throw $116K at max IV and floss with Wagyu. External news notes SanDisk is up more than 1,700% in a year and still 33% off its peak, which is either a buying opportunity or a warning label depending on your strike price. The only thing missing is a second mortgage and a prayer candle.

[PANW]: u/oprah_2024’s $372.5 9/18 puts printed after “the Berenstein Bears Analyst” moved it down, with comments noting a 300k 1DTE and a mere 4.91% YTD. External coverage keeps pushing Palo Alto’s AI-security story and its biggest beat ever, because nothing says “bearish” like a company with an AI threat narrative. This is why we can’t have nice hedging.

[TNZ/LAC]: A Canadian degen claims he cashed out a milly and “diversified” into a two-stock margin portfolio of TNZ and LAC, expecting TNZ to join the triple-digit club and LAC to add $1M+ within 36 months. The comments run from “can I have a Timmies double double” to “LAC is only down 67% all time”, plus a detailed note on TNZ’s Dutch gas exposure and the mandatory poutine joke. This is what peak diversification looks like when your brokerage statement is also a personality.

[TOKENIZED NMS STOCK]: The SEC issued an “Innovation Exemption” for tokenized NMS stock, which commenters immediately labeled “derivatives of derivatives” and a scam if the tokens aren’t backed 1-to-1 by shares. The only ticker anyone cared to name was HOOD, because financial innovation always ends with someone trying to sell you a tokenized share of a share. External coverage confirms a five-year exemption, so the next NFT boom has a regulatory footnote.

[GM/F/BYD]: A heavily upvoted bear case asks whether shielding Detroit from BYD, Geely, and XPeng makes US automakers stronger or just lazier, with commenters calling protection a “fentanyl patch” that lets Detroit nod off while China scales elsewhere. The post singles out GM for competing under Chevrolet in Brazil while Americans can’t buy those Chinese-branded EVs directly. Meanwhile, Leapmotor is sidestepping EU tariffs via a Stellantis plant, because the global auto war doesn’t pause for US dealerships.

[ALGOS]: u/patmccock86 claims he fooled the algos for $280k by saying he went short while also going long, which is either genius or a cry for help. The comments are full of degens convinced the machines target them personally, with one noting that every call goes down, every put goes up, and buying both guarantees sideways crab. Now the algos will only target the rest of us.

[NKE]: One poster notes Nike job postings are around 1,000 a day, up roughly 15% since December, while the stock has gone from about $62 to $38 and Reddit mentions spiked from ~13 a day to a peak near 260. The comments counter that Nike fired 1,400 people in April and the posting data isn’t significant, which is exactly what a company backfilling roles after layoffs would say. Either Nike is spending into a turnaround or it’s just rotating through warm bodies—pick your casino.

[SOC]: A first-time poster pitches Sable Corp as a beaten-down oil producer with the third platform coming online, 30% short interest, and a possible Q3 re-rating after the stock fell from $13 to $4 on dilutive financing. The comments warn that if anything goes wrong “that will be it”, with concerns about Venezuela, lawsuits, and a CEO who sounds like a degenerate gambler. External news notes the Q2 earnings and revenue lag, plus a recent 4.4% bounce, so the bull case is officially “please squeeze before the next financing.”

The through-line is simple: the Fed hikes, the market rips, the debt pile grows, and the degens keep finding new ways to call it bullish. We’ll be here tomorrow, same time, same casino, still pretending this is investing.

Stay solvent (somehow),

Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management