HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
"We only know it was obvious after you lost the money."
To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: September 02, 2026 at 07:00 PM EDT
Subject: AVGO Beat, Dropped 5%, and Took Our Dignity With It
My fellow exit-liquidity providers,
The market is somehow both too expensive and too broke: the daily thread is grumbling about 20-year-high rates on mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans, and WSB is asking whether a -99.58% account is just a healthy pullback. Somewhere between the two, earnings week became a minefield.
[AVGO / SNOW]: Broadcom dropped 5% on weak guidance despite a beat, while Snowflake mooned 23% for merely meeting expectations. In this regime, the only reliable earnings transcript is "investor: you better do good / company: we did good / investor: fuck you," as the top AVGO commenter put it. Naturally, this is the week one regard front-loaded 80% of his account into AVGO while another asked to turn on the money printer.
[DELL]: DELL surged 10% after lifting its fiscal 2027 forecast on AI server strength, which the thread translated as back to the price from 12 hours earlier — or, better yet, an AI shovel dealer selling shovels to people selling shovels. One regard is flaunting a $180k DELL call three-bagger; another was up $149k at the open and hopefully locked it in before the close. The rest of us are still waiting four months for a server.
[DXYZ / ANTHROPIC]: With Anthropic's S1 expected after Labor Day, one thread's preferred Anthropic proxy is DXYZ — OP pitches below-NAV pricing, 15% Anthropic exposure, and a 30M-share float. One $700k DXYZ legend already says the rocket launches when the S1 drops, while SPCX-cautious commenters warn that proxy tickers tend to plummet once everyone can buy the real thing.
[GOOG]: The anti-meme position is alive: someone is up to $325k of GOOG and still buying. The bull case from one commenter leans on Morgan Stanley math that GCP could hit $308 billion in revenue by 2028; the bear case is that Gemini is too shitty to trust until it fails a benchmark. One commenter sums it up as boring & working, which is the nicest thing said on this website all week.
[ASTS]: "LEAPS are safer" has joined "it'll rebound" in the sub's pantheon of lies, with ASTS as the biggest loser. The comments are offering actual financial advice for once — Meta, Google, Microsoft, or Nvidia LEAPS, not ASTS — plus the timeless diagnosis that the problem isn't the leap, it's ASTS. Some regard then bought 1,500 shares at $57, proving the cycle is not broken.
[SPOT]: This week's long-term thesis/short-term theta award goes to the regard holding $300k of SPOT calls and refusing to sell until SPOT doubles — the calls expire next month. His bull case is $1,200 within one year; theta's bull case is the premium. Options are a beautiful way to lose time.
[THE HEATING OIL SHORT]: A distinguished regard opened a short-heating-oil position on a de-escalation thesis, and one commenter saluted the timing of shorting into the winter months. WSB was less charitable elsewhere: one commenter called it betting on the competence of the administration, while another pointed out Russia halted diesel exports and US refineries are at max. The post earned a D+ and a dinosaur chart, which is still a better grade than most of our risk memos.
[PRIVATE MARKETS]: The SEC is reportedly preparing to widen retail access to private markets, and WSB reads it as high-level bag management: they're trying to dump bags. One commenter lists the tell-tale buildup — futures, 24-hour trading, endless leveraged ETFs, PDT rule gone — while another notes the people being pillaged don't have anything left. Consider this the SEC's official invitation to become someone else's liquidity.
[WEAT]: A $50k WEAT yolo is built on oil being "too manipulated" and wheat being impossible to manipulate. The replies immediately note wheat can definitely be manipulated, one guy is planting a backyard to short it, and another is switching to rice out of spite. That last one might be the first coordinated retail attack on wheat demand we've ever seen.
[AAPL / TIM APPLE]: The week's biggest post salutes Tim Apple for turning a $349 billion company into a $4.5 trillion one, and the replies are already asking whether John Apple is qualified. Meanwhile AAPL did its usual job as the bear-day savior while one poor soul who bought Amazon was bleeding instead. The spreadsheet guy turned out to be the best trade of the century; naturally, we sold too early.
At Hindsight, we have reached the point following our trades loses money and inversing our trades also loses money — a financial paradox. But don't worry: as long as earnings keep beating and dropping 5%, we'll keep writing about it in real time, just a little too late. After all, hindsight is the only asset class guaranteed to print.
Stay solvent (somehow),
Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management