HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
"Hindsight is 20/20; our options are not."
To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: August 05, 2026 at 07:00 PM EDT
Subject: Beats Don't Matter, Guidance Does, and Neither Do Your Positions
My fellow exit-liquidity providers,
The S&P 500 is back at a record and the Dow just crossed 54,000, which means every earnings beat is just a more expensive way to lose money. Michael Burry is yelling about 1987, and SNDK just volunteered to lead the reenactment.
SNDK: SNDK printed EPS of $39.25 versus $34.52 expected and revenue of $8.965B versus $8.39B, then got sold for the crime of a revenue forecast that fell short. One commenter jokes it's only sinking to levels unseen since this very week, while the $203k regard at $1,412.84 is already down $19,591 in after-hours and calling it "not the biggest deal." One post's earnings-call notes insist even the bear case targets $2,000 and NAND is heading to $500B; the wheel landed on sell anyway.
WDC: Western Digital beat with 44% sales growth and still tumbled late. One commenter's theory: they beat but it wasn't like an unbelievable earnings, so down. Another pointed at the tape — strong earnings reports are mostly down — and muttered that this isn't helping the AI stocks.
SPY / 0DTE: Between all the earnings carnage, SPY lottos turned $100 into $42k, $72 into $21k, and $2k into $240k in a matter of days. The $42k miracle was deep OTM calls the market priced as worthless that caught a god candle. The best advice in those threads is to take profits and buy a house before the casino claws it back.
MICHAEL BURRY / SPY: Burry is back on CNBC warning we are near a major top and a possible 1987-type fall, and the post itself asks whether he follows Situation Awareness with his short positions. A 5,908-vote post calculates he'd be sitting on roughly $857M, or $1.2B with dividends reinvested, if he'd just bought the S&P in 2008; the top commenter says being an insufferable bear doomer is priceless. We prefer our bears to at least be profitable, but that's not the brand.
AMD: One trader turned $1k into $30k and then gave half back on AMD, which is the correct way to respect an earnings dump. External news has Lisa Su brushing off Musk's Nvidia commitment as AMD stock sinks. The winning rebuttal in the comments remains a single word: Retard.
AI DATACENTER EARNINGS / APLD: One roundup claims the recent AI datacenter prints all look terrible besides arguably APLD, which beat revenue by 152% and still lost money, earning the "winner" tag. One commenter says NBIS and CRWV will survive and grow but most of these late-to-the-game BTC miners won't. Another sees boring REIT-like income machines by 2028.
PLTR: The earnings-thread prophecy says PLTR will beat, go +12% premarket, -8% by open, -20% by close as is tradition. One commenter just wants the guy who talked them out of PLTR calls to know they are gay.
NINTENDO: One regard is running a ban bet that Nintendo hits $16 by EOY, with Switch 2 donations to children's hospitals if it does, because the unreleased franchise slate is apparently stacked. News reports annual revenue nearly doubled on Switch 2's success, though the comments remain skeptical: one regard figures it'll go up 50% after the hype cycle already died.
SPCX: One commenter's thesis: SPCX is going to post some of the most dog shit earnings, so calls are obviously the way. Another trader who learned a lesson from TSLA days warns against shorting before the big unlock because Elon dickriders can irrationally pump anything, and one regard is waiting for an ideal entry around $18.
GOOGL: Someone bought GOOGL $400 calls and dropped 45% before going to bed early, which one commenter called your timing is impeccable. The daily thread is still screaming fucking googl, straight to 400, no stop, which is hope, not a trade plan.
SIEMENS ENERGY: Siemens Energy beat earnings by far, so the immediate WSB response is that it means -10% before open and -20% before close. External reality: record orders, revenue, and profitability with U.S. data-center demand driving the boom. One commenter unironically calls it the best AI stock even though it's a German turbine builder.
A TALE AS OLD AS TIME: The 5,113-vote meme asks when is the time to take profit, and the thread's answer is effectively never, because profits mean taxes and taking profit implies a plan. The top comment delivers a beautiful monologue about clients hooked on "another situation"; another user asks why it burns when they pee. Take both questions seriously.
So the playbook is simple: beat earnings, disappoint guidance, sell the news, buy the dip, repeat until your portfolio becomes a cautionary tale. We at Hindsight Capital are fully prepared to have seen all of this coming after the fact.
Stay solvent (somehow),
Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management