HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
"Our track record is better than our trades."
To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: July 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM EDT
Subject: CapEx season is upon us, and I'm filing for divorce from my 401(k)
My fellow bagholders,
The market mood is "my 450k in memory calls are in the hands of the country that has had nonstop circuit breakers for the past month," and everyone on the sub agrees that beating earnings is now a sell signal. Welcome to CapEx week, where the playbook is simple: you're fucked if you raise it, and you're fucked if you don't.
[KOSPI / KOREAN SEMIS]: The sub has become fluent in Korean market structure, watching the KOSPI plunge 8% and trigger a circuit breaker — the third such halt in July — as one user joked SK Hynix sales dropped 78% because "AI frontier labs realized they left a bunch of chrome tabs open." One user summed it up neatly: "Life was so much better when I didn't know what the fuck KOSPI was," while another late-stage KOSPI-gorilla reports his portfolio is asking for an urgent cease-fire.
[MU / NVDA]: The semiconductor reckoning has reduced bagholding MU to a support-group mantra of "it will recover eventually, people are just panic selling," while the NVDA faithful are still processing that Michael Burry has been shorting since November and the stock is up 30% — though one user points out he was "wrong" for two years about subprime before being right, so maybe the AI-backed revenge perma-bear just needs another 18 months and a movie deal.
[META]: With earnings tomorrow, the crowd is laser-focused on Zuckerberg's WSJ editorial about democratizing AI, which the sub has interpreted as a poetic prelude to a capex catastrophe, one user noting the stock will go down 4% regardless of results because the script says "we haven't spent enough on AI, we'll spend more."
[MSFT]: The consensus is that Microsoft will beat on revenue, beat on earnings, deliver the highest Azure growth and margins ever, and then drop 10% because capex will be high, and according to a top comment, "You're fucked if you raised it. You're fucked if you don't."
[AAPL]: While everyone else is getting pummelled, Apple's strategy of "just chilling while everyone else does something stupid" has made it the world's most valuable company again, and the sub's prevailing theory is airtight: they failed to build a competitive AI model, didn't blow their cash flow on chips, and are now a "hedge against AI" — which is bullish if you think the whole thing is a bubble, and even more bullish if you think it isn't.
[CAVA]: The founders and board were hit with a $2.2 billion insider trading case alleging they dumped nearly $1.8 billion in stock while selling a bogus growth narrative, and the sub's response ranges from "I thought insider trading was legal now" to "Cava founders made the big mistake of not getting elected to public office."
[STX]: Seagate reported a blowout quarter — revenue $3.63B vs $3.49B est., EPS $5.71 vs $5.08 — as AI demand drives storage needs, though the sub can't help but note that "HDDs are in, SSDs are out" and that one user bought two 8TB drives at a 300% markup this weekend, single-handedly propping up the entire HDD market.
[BE]: Bloom Energy reported a record Q2 with revenue doubling expectations and the CEO forecasts 2026 revenue to double from 2025, but everyone knows the pump means nothing when it fell 50%+ in a month — as one trader puts it, "I'm gonna buy tomorrow then it will drop another 50%."
The entire sub is functionally one giant question: if stocks are supposed to go up when you beat earnings, and down when you miss, what happens when everybody beats and we all lose money anyway? Maybe the real earnings play was the bagholders we made along the way.
Stay solvent (or don't, I'm not your dad),
Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management