HINDSIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
"Buy high, sell 'I'll just hold forever'."

To: Hindsight Global Investors
Date: July 20, 2026 at 07:00 PM EDT
Subject: 43 Days of Oil, 0 Days of Conviction

My fellow exit-liquidity providers,

The mood is bleak, puts are expensive, and the only thing gapping up tomorrow is your blood pressure. One thread claims everyone loaded up on downside after that close, which famously means the algos have already queued the 2% open. Let’s sort through the rubble.

[GOOGL]: Buffett wrote a $10B check into Alphabet’s capex just before the market nuked the stock $200B on a model delay, but the cloud backlog sits at $462B and they’re turning away customers – earnings Wednesday with the same coil that earlier went 350 to 408 and back. One regard’s DD boiled down to “calls” after a novella written by Claude, and honestly that might be the most rigorous analysis in here.

[OIL]: US crude inventories at a 45-year low with 43 days of supply left and the Strait of Hormuz shut, yet investors still price oil at $71 – somebody’s math is wrong. The sub’s favorite retort: “I guess that’s not a problem for 42 days then.” External news says prices topped $90 before paring.

[DRAM/SNDK/SAMSUNG]: South Korean leveraged traders who got access in May piled into SK Hynix and Samsung, then watched their 500% margin loans evaporate – now they’re yelling “give me my money back” while planning to buy leveraged inverse ETFs. One degenerate went all in on DRAM, NBIS, and RKLB and now has 7 cents left. Another posted a 300% margin loan at the top of memory stocks with health at -33%.

[PARA/WBD]: A judge paused the Paramount-Warner merger, and every 90-day delay reportedly costs Paramount $650M. The sub is shorting Larry Ellison and poking Netflix to wake up. External news says the halt runs through August 3.

[HUT]: Hut 8 signed a $9.8B AI data center lease to commercialize its Texas campus. The top comment: “Pizza Hut does data centers now?” External news pegs the total campus contract value at $19.6B, but one wag notes the Texas grid can’t handle it.

[HAS]: Hasbro reports pre-market Tuesday, and the only analyst worth listening to is a Magic collector who says Marvel Superheroes is the second-best-selling set ever and Nintendo signing in 2027 could beat Final Fantasy. Positions at $80, $110, and $120 calls, with a prayer the toy business doesn’t drag WOTC into the tar pit.

[SPCX]: Someone got drunk and built a synthetic short put/long call on SpaceX, now facing early assignment on a deeply ITM Dec 2028 put – the sub’s consensus is “you’re a regard” and the underlying heads below 40 by year-end. Meanwhile, Cathie added another $57M to SpaceX while dumping AMD. The internet says it’s a $50 stock; she disagrees.

[LULU/NFLX]: Down $300K across yoga pants and chill options, one bagholder posted loss porn that looks like a Jackson Pollock painting. Top advice: “Just switch to puts.” That’s the depth of analysis you pay for here.

[SPY/0DTE]: The infinite money glitch guy turned $750 into $12K using a coin flip on SPX 0DTEs, and the top comment is “take the $12K and use the $827 to do it all over again.” Another regard lost $20K on 220 contracts that went from $0.98 to $0.05, held over a war weekend, and still missed the morning drop. Collective thesis: “Line always goes up, regard.”

[BTC/BMNR]: Some genius plotted Bitcoin against World Cup cycles and called it technical analysis – the sub’s reaction: “makes about as much sense as anything else related to crypto.” BMNR is pumping on a Tom Lee buyback and ETH at ATH, because every cycle needs a four-year Ponzi narrative that ends the same way.

The only hedge that makes sense is the one that works: assume every move is the wrong one, and that by the time you read this, the Koreans have already rugpulled themselves again. Stay solvent (somehow),

Hindsight Henry
Chief Investment Officer, Hindsight Capital Management